Indeed, the commissioner of the 1850 census waxed lyrically as he recounted the technological advances of the previous decade: the vast expansion of the railroad system, the fleet of steamboats that plied our inland waterways, the rapid spread of the telegraph network, and the growth of large-scale plants manufacturing cotton textiles and iron. In the election of 1928, Herbert Hoover had made the extravagant promise that, if he was elected president, there would be a chicken (the most expensive meat at the time) in every pot and an automobile in every garage. It also reported that inequality of income distribution had narrowed over time, but this narrowing had not generally occurred until after World War I. Generalizations about less developed countries must be carefully and critically scrutinized in the light of this wide variety of conditions and institutions. Of course, the stock of material and social technology that can be tapped by less developed countries today is enormously larger than that available in the nineteenth and even early twentieth centuries. Since the output of agriculture increased more rapidly than population and the share of the labor force in agriculture declined, labor productivity in agriculture was rising. Moreover, as countries became rich, saving shifted from being concentrated in households to being concentrated in businesses and governments. Main Modern Economic Growth. However, some of them are listed, because they contribute to our understanding of the distinctive problems of economic life in the world today. Kuznets set out to gather statistics on the growth of nations over a period of at least a half century in order to have secular trends dominate short-term cycles. This brief summary of two quantitative characteristics of modern economic growth that relate to aggregate rates, two that relate to structural transformation, and two that relate to international spread, supports our working assumption that modern economic growth marks a distinct economic epoch. The eighth entry in the series reported that the distribution of income in the 1950s was more equal in rich countries than in poor countries. The first of these monographs brought together data on the growth of national product and its components, of populations, and of per capita growth for nineteen nations during the first half of the twentieth century. Several outreach organisations and activities have been developed to inspire generations and disseminate knowledge about the Nobel Prize. Despite intriguing analytical problems that these few fortunate countries raise, we are interested here only in the nations that derive abundance by using advanced contemporary technology – not by selling fortuitous gifts of nature to others. Thus, not only are high aggregate growth rates associated with rapid changes in economic structure, but the latter are also associated with rapid changes in other aspects of society – in family formation, in urbanization, in man’s views on his role and the measure of his achievement in society. These technological advances were so remarkable, he concluded, that they could not be matched again in the next decade. All three components of the definition are important. You may be interested in Powered by Rec2Me . The second monograph in the "Quantitative Methods" series was subtitled "Industrial Distribution of National Product and Labor Force." Modern economic growth (1966) Postwar economic growth (1964) Economic trends in the Soviet Union (1963) with Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) as Éditeur scientifique Capital in the American economy (1961) Categories: economics. The underlying data are from Everett E. Hagen and Oli Hawrylyshyn, “Analysis of World Income and Growth, 1955-1965”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 1. Kuznets was able to describe long-term changes in the industrial structure of twenty-eight countries, going back a whole century in two of the countries and between half and three-quarters of a century in most of the others. II, International Tables (New York, 1970), notes to Table 5, p. 156. Critical Review 5. The innovational requirements are likely to be particularly great in the social and political structures. In this work Kuznets identified a new economic era—which he called “modern economic growth”—that began in northwestern Europe in the last half of the eighteenth century. The basic organization of Kuznets’ Modern Economic Growth parallels the theoretical structuring of economic study in Alfred Marshall’s Principles of Economics and harkens back to John Stuart Mill’s Principles of Political Economy — production, allocation of resources, income distribution, consumption, and external relations. Twelve laureates were awarded a Nobel Prize in 2020, for achievements that have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind. For more than a century, these academic institutions have worked independently to select Nobel Laureates in each prize category. Preview. 2. These classifications vary from time to time, and differ somewhat from those of other international agencies. Economic Change Selected Essays in Business Cycles, National Income, and Economic Growth by Simon Kuznets 0.00 avg rating — 0 ratings — published 1953 — 2 editions Those of most interest here are the surprises, the unexpected results, which may be positive or negative. POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH SIMON KUZNETS Professor of Economics, Harvard University (Read in abbreviated form November 11, 1966, in the Symposium on Population Problems) 1. The six characteristics noted are interrelated, and the interrelations among them are most significant. En 1971, il reçoit le « Prix Nobel » d'économie pour ses travaux empiriques en économie de la croissance. Author & abstract; Download & other version; 190 Citations; Related works & more ; Corrections; Author. An invention is a major one if it provides the basis for extensive applications and improvements (e.g. In other words, many production plants in developed countries can be viewed as laboratories for the exploration of natural processes and as centers of research on new tools, both of which are of immense service to basic and applied research in science and technology. Climate zones? One was the deceleration in growth rates after World War I—not only among the losers but also among the winners—which he attributed to institutional destabilizations produced by the war. Using the conventional national economic accounts, we find that the rate of increase in productivity is large enough to account (in the statistical sense) for almost the entire growth of product per capita. Conclusion 6. Or, finally, is it merely a reflection of the temporarily favourable climate of the U.S. international policies? Is the expansion into space a continuation of the old trend of reaching out by the developed countries, or is it a precursor of a new economic epoch? The estimates for the Communist countries have been adjusted to conform to the international GDP concept. Modem Economie Growth, Rate, Structure and Spread, Simon Kuznets, New Haven and London Yale University Press, 1966, 529 pages. The series Simon Kuznets, 1901-1985 Faculty members of the Economic Growth Center at Yale founded the Simon Kuznets Memorial Lecture Series in 1986. Modern economic growth (1966) Postwar economic growth (1964) Economic trends in the Soviet Union (1963) avec Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) comme Éditeur … Some implications8 I turn now to a brief discussion of some social implications, of some effects of modern economic growth on conditions of life of various population groups in the countries affected. I hesitate to formulate them explicitly, since the data and the stock of knowledge on which the observations rest are limited. Concluding Comments The aim of the discussion was to sketch the major characteristics of modern economic growth, and to note some of the implications that the empirical study of economic growth of nations suggests. 5. Kuznets's plan to use national income measures to describe and explain the long-term economic trends of the industrial nations was formulated in the late 1930s. In general, the shift in the structure of the labor force from agriculture to higher- productivity sectors by itself accounted for about one- fifth of the overall growth in labor productivity, and the remainder was due to productivity growth within each sector. The demands of the data meant that his study of growth would be focused on the score or so of nations that had achieved high levels of industrialization by the mid-twentieth century. A similar theme was struck by the commissioner of the 1900 census, who reviewed the progress of the preceding half century, which included the laying of the Atlantic cable, electric lights, shortwave radio, automobiles based on internal-combustion engines, the completion of the national railroad network, elevators, typewriters, photographic film, diesel engines, fountain pens, the gramophone, escalators, and motion pictures. This, too, is a matter that may generate conflicts, since different legal and institutional arrangements may have different effects on the several economic groups in society. Please read our short guide how to send a book to Kindle. To be sure, their common failure to exploit the potential of modern economic growth means several specific common features: a low per capita product, a large share of agriculture or other extractive industries, a generally small scale of production. Most of international trade between 1870 and the 1960s was accounted for by Western Europe, the United States, Canada, and Japan either trading among themselves or with underdeveloped countries. And one may argue that this source is the emergence of modern science as the basis of advancing technology – a breakthrough in the evolution of science that produced a potential for technology far greater than existed previously. The significant aspect here is that the surprises cannot be viewed as accidents: they are inherent in the process of technological (and social) innovation in that it contains an element of the unknown. Its cumulative effects, all new, extend over a long period and result in an enormous transformation of economic production and of production relations. Nobel Media AB 2020. One issue was the unit of observation. Kuznets sought to explain the wide variations in the growth rates of per capita income, from a low of 5.6 percent per decade for Spain to a high of 29.2 percent per decade for Sweden (which means that, in half a century, Sweden's per capita income quadrupled while Spain's increased by only 30 percent). He doubted the reliability of the data available for most of these nations and urged Kuznets to continue his prior emphasis on trends in the US economy. These questions are clearly illustrative, but they hint at broader analytical problems suggested by the observation of modern economic growth as a distinct epoch. Religious denominations? The records of many developed countries reveal examples of resolutions of growth conflicts, of payments for overcoming resistance and obstacles to growth, that left burdensome heritages for the following generations (notably in Germany and Japan). The sketch above draws upon the results of many and widely varied studies in many countries, most of them economically developed; and the discussion reflects a wide collective effort, however individual some of my interpretations may be. And the variants even of Communist organization, let alone those of democracy and of non-Communist authoritarianism, are familiar. 7. This monograph was not the first time that Kuznets had shown the relative importance of intersectoral shifts in total economic growth. These countries, so classified because they have managed to take adequate advantage of the potential of modern technology, include most of Europe, the overseas offshoots of Western Europe, and Japan – barely one quarter of world population.2 This paper will focus on modern economic growth, but with obviously needed attention to its worldwide impact. That fear was not cast out of professional and public discourse during the 1950s. Obviously, this aspect of modern economic growth deserves our greatest attention, and the fact that the quantitative data and our knowledge of the institutional structures of the less developed countries are, at the moment, far more limited than our knowledge of the developed areas, is not reason enough for us to ignore it. Robert W. Fogel | His analyses of both the cross-sectional data and trends over time revealed that, as countries got rich, the agricultural share of the labor force declined. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, Four ways to improve your pay-for-performance plan. But to whatever the struggle for political and social organization is a response, once it has been resolved, the results shape significantly the conditions under which economic growth can occur. 1, Part II, October 1969. Limitations of space prevent the presentation of a documented summary of the quantitative characteristics commonly observed in the growth of the presently developed countries, characteristics different from those of economic growth in earlier epochs. 1. Nor did the numerous technological innovations, which drove the American economy and society forward and transformed American culture, escape notice. Post a Review You can write a book review and share your experiences. 6. First, the negative effects of growth have never been viewed as so far outweighing its positive contribution as to lead to its renunciation – no matter how crude the underlying calculus may have been. Simon Kuznets (1901 - 1985) Premio Nobel 1971. Even more significant is the concentration of the population at the low end of the product per capita range. Whatever the weight of the several factors in explaining the failure of the less developed countries to take advantage of the potential of modern economic growth, a topic that, in its range from imperialist exploitation to backwardness of the native economic and social framework, lends itself to passionate and biased polemic, the factual findings are clear. With his obligations to the NBER complete, he turned to his project on comparative long-term growth. Quite the contrary: the available data indicated that high rates of growth in per capita income were positively related to population growth, although the sample size was not large enough to establish statistical significance. The outward expansion of developed countries, with their European origin, goes back to long before modern economic growth, indeed, back to the Crusades. 2. Although the shift to the SSRC took place in 1949, Kuznets continued to work at the bureau to complete the projects under his supervision that were still in progress. Another finding was that high rates of population growth did not undermine the growth of per capita income, as some neo-Malthusians believed. Kuznets's final task for the bureau was a monograph that integrated the various sectoral studies into an integrated overview of the marshaling of capital for economic growth: Capital in the American Economy. These aspects, the “surprises” and the implicit explanatory “puzzles”, are problems not only in the sense of departures from the desirable (that may call for policy amelioration) but also in the sense that our quantitative data and particularly our analytical hypotheses do not provide us with a full view and explanation. How might inequality be affected by income growth? Fourth, the closely related and extremely important structures of society and its ideology have also changed rapidly. It would be an oversimplification to argue that these innovations in the social and political structures were made primarily in response to the strain between economic backwardness and the potential of modern economic growth; or to claim that they were inexorable effects of antecedent history. And most of us can point at the unexpected negative effects of some technological or social invention that first appeared to be an unlimited blessing. Simon Kuznets 3. But never before had he or any other scholar applied this analysis to so many countries over such a long stretch of time. While the list is selective and is open to charges of omission, it includes those observed and empirically testable characteristics that lead back to some basic factors and conditions, which can only be glimpsed and conjectured, and forward to some implications that have so far eluded measurement. In 1955, Simon Kuznets published a paper asserting that the correlation between economic growth and income inequality resembles an inverted U-shaped curve. Consumption was also promoted by the decrease in the inequality of the income distribution. Noté /5: Achetez Modern Economic Growth de Kuznets, Simon: ISBN: 9780300006469 sur amazon.fr, des millions de livres livrés chez vous en 1 jour Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections. Modern Economic Growth | Simon Kuznets | download | B–OK. These comments should not be interpreted as denying the value of many transferable parts of modern technology; they are merely intended to stress the possible shortage of material and social tools specifically fitted to the different needs of the less developed countries. of output per unit of all inputs, is high, even when we include among inputs other factors in addition to labor, the major productive factor – and here too the rate is a large multiple of the rate in the past.4 Third, the rate of structural transformation of the economy is high. The topic continued to be vigorously debated into the 1960s and beyond. The effects of such ventures into the new and partly unknown are numerous. The sustained rise in the supply of goods is the result of economic growth, by which it is identified. It did not require the invention of national income accounting to demonstrate that the United States was becoming increasingly well-to-do. Simon Kuznets - Prize Lecture: Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections, The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 1971. For 1938 and 1947, Dudley Seers, The Levelling of Income Since 1938. Simon Kuznets is best known to the public for the Kuznets curve, which describes the relationship between But the quantitative base and interest in economic growth have widened greatly in the last three to four decades, and the accumulated results of past study of economic history and of past economic analysis could be combined with the richer stock of quantitative data to advance the empirical study of the process. INTRODUCTION MODERN economic growth, as revealed by the experience of the developed countries since the late eighteenth or early nineteenth century, reflects a continuing capacity to supply a growing … Several preliminary findings, or rather plausible impressions, may be noted. Even if one were to argue that progress in basic science may not be closely tied to the technological needs of the country of origin (and even that may be disputed), unquestionably the applied advances, the inventions and tools, are a response to the specific needs of the country within which they originate. We have stressed the problem aspects of modern economic growth because they indicate the directions of further research in the field. in the character of participation in economic activity, in the social values, and in the new pressures on deviant members of society. urbanization, internal migration, shift to employee status and what might be called the merit basis of job choice, have already been noted as characteristics of modern economic growth. Yet modern growth continues many older trends, if in greatly accelerated form. Economic social classes? For a recent classification identifying the non-Communist developed countries see United Nations, Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics, 1969, vol. You may be interested in Powered by Rec2Me Post a Review . Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 11, 1971. 10-27). If technology is to be employed efficiently and widely, and, indeed, if its own progress is to be stimulated by such use, institutional and ideological adjustments must be made to effect the proper use of innovations generated by the advancing stock of human knowledge. These included a book presenting estimates of US wealth, national product, and capital formation going back to 1880 and his supervision of a series of monographs dealing with long-term trends in capital formation in various sectors of the US economy. To cite this section The effects on conditions of life stem partly from the major role of technological innovations in modern economic growth, and partly from the rapid shifts in the underlying production structure. Yet, by 1955, advances in animal feeds had turned chicken into the cheapest meat, and there were about as many cars as households. MEG 4. If the argument is valid, modern economic growth, with the rapid succession of innovations and shortening period of their mass diffusion, must be accompanied by a relatively high incidence of negative effects. Finally, it may well be that, despite the tremendous accumulation of material and social technology, the stock of innovations most suitable to the needs of the less developed countries is not too abundant. One may hope, but with limited expectations, that the task of refining analysis and measurement in the developed countries will not be pursued to the exclusion or neglect of badly needed studies of the less developed countries, studies that would deal with the quantitative bases and institutional conditions of their performance, in addition to those concentrating on what appear to be their major bottlenecks and the seemingly optimal policy prescriptions. First and most obvious are the high rates of growth of per capita product and of population in the developed countries – both large multiples of the previous rates observable in these countries and of those in the rest of the world, at least until the recent decade or two.3 Second, the rate of rise in productivity, i.e. It will not be a matter of merely borrowing existing tools, material and social; or of directly applying past patterns of growth, merely allowing for the difference in parameters. For purposes of analysis, Kuznets sometimes divided the economy into twelve sectors and sometimes compressed those sectors into three, that he identified as A (agriculture, forestry, and fishing), M (manufacturing, mining, and construction), and S (transportation, communications, commerce, public utilities, government, and other services). But the much augmented transportation and communication power of developed countries in the nineteenth century permitted a much greater and more direct political dominance over the colonies, the “opening up” of previously closed areas (such as Japan), and the “partition” of previously undivided areas (such as sub-Saharan Africa). Nevertheless, in the 1950s, the specter of the Great Depression still haunted economists and policymakers, who worried that the postwar boom would peter out, like air escaping from a balloon, and the country would be returned to the clutches of secular stagnation. Emergence of a modern framework for economic growth may be especially difficult if it involves elements peculiar to European civilization for which substitutes are not easily found. In many cases these negative results were allowed to accumulate and to become serious technological or social problems because it was so difficult to foresee them early enough in the process to take effective preventive or ameliorative action. If the rates of aggregate growth and the speed of structural transformation in the economic, institutional, and perhaps even in the ideological, framework are SO much higher than in the past as to represent a revolutionary acceleration, and if the various regions of the world are for the first time in history so closely interrelated as to be one, some new major growth source, some new epochal innovation, must have generated these radically different patterns. And the changing course of economic history can perhaps be subdivided into economic epochs, each identified by the epochal innovation with the distinctive characteristics of growth that it generated.1 Without considering the feasibility of identifying and dating such economic epochs, we may proceed on the working assumption that modern economic growth represents such a distinct epoch – growth dating back to the late eighteenth century and limited (except in significant partial effects) to economically developed countries. You can write a book review and share your … A technological innovation, particularly one based on a recent major invention, represents a venture into the partly unknown, something not fully known until the mass spread of the innovation reveals the full range of direct and related effects. Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread. For further discussion see Section 4 below, which deals with the less developed countries. This continuity is important particularly when we find that, except for Japan and possibly Russia, all presently developed countries were well in advance of the rest of the world before their modern growth and industrialization began, enjoying a comparative advantage produced by pre-modern trends. exploitable by more developed nations, that yields a large and increasing rent. The learning of new skills and the declining value of previously acquired skills was clearly a costly process – to both the individuals and to society. Kuznets: Economic Growth and Income Inequality (1955) August 25, 2015 The Point: This paper from 1955 his of historical importance in the study of inequality. Even when the technological innovation is an adaptation of a known technique by a follower country, the results may not be fully foreseeable, for they represent the combination of something known, the technology, with something new, an institutional and ideological framework with which it has not previously been combined. Vaccines, penicillin, and other powerful medicines were widely available to deal with once-fatal diseases. Many Schumpeterian entrepreneurs failed to grasp, by a wide margin, the full scope and significance of the innovations that they were promoting and that eventually brought them fame and fortune. The dynamic drives of modern economic growth, in the countries that entered the process ahead of others, meant a reaching out geographically; and the sequential spread of the process, facilitated by major changes in transport and communication, meant a continuous expansion to the less developed areas. Mitchell was not enamored of a project that aimed to quantify the similarities and differences in the long-term growth patterns of a score of industrialized nations. Simon Kuznets, a Russian-American development economist and statistician, was awarded the 1971 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his research on … excluding small “city enclaves”), a drop of 30 to 40 percentage points in the course of a single century is a strikingly fast structural change. Urbanization and secularization come easily to mind as components of what sociologists term the process of modernization. These are primarily from United Nations publications, supplemented by some auxiliary sources (mostly for the Communist countries), and use conventional conversion rates to U.S. dollars in 1965. Examples of both positive and negative surprises abound. But how to proceed? The text revolved around the discussion of thirty-one very detailed tables. 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